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Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo

Boero, Gianna - Marrocu, Emanuela (1999) Modelli non lineari per i tassi di cambio: un confronto previsivo. Working Paper. CRENoS.

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Official URL: http://www.crenos.it/working/pdf/99-14.pdf

Abstract

In recent years there has been a considerable development in time seriesanalysis, represented mainly by alternative linear models able to describe more adequately the short and long term dynamics and by the renewed interest in modelling nonlinearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. Given the relevance of such variables in devising economic and monetary policy, it is of theoretical, as well as practical, importance to propose statistical methods appropriate to represent their dynamic behaviour. The aim of this work is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of some of the most traded exchange rates, namely the French Franc (FF/$), the German Mark (DM/$) and the Japanese Yen (Y/$). We compare the relative performance of some nonlinear models and contrast them with their simpler linear counterparts. Although we find evidence of noticeable forecasting gains from nonlinear models, the results are sensitive to the metric adopted to measure the forecasting accuracy.e.

Item Type:Technical Report / Working Paper / Project Report (Working Paper)
Publisher:CRENoS
Date:1999
Institution:Universita' degli Studi di Cagliari
Divisions:Centri > CRENoS Centro Ricerche Economiche Nord Sud
Subjects:Area 13 - Scienze economiche e statistiche > SECS-P/03 Scienza delle finanze
Uncontrolled Keywords:Non-linearity, Asymmetry, Forecasting accuracy, Exchange rates
ID Code:341
Deposited On:14 Nov 2008 08:39

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